A joint national survey by InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group of 1200 likely voters, conducted April 30-May 1, shows President Donald Trump enjoying higher approval ratings. The poll has a margin of error of 2.83%.
The results:
“What is your opinion of President Donald Trump’s job performance?”
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 44%
Undecided: 10%
Analysis by InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery and Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly
While this poll may seem to be an outlier, it is not. Both InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar have enjoyed great success polling Donald Trump in his election cycles. While RealClearPolitics has not released their ratings for 2024 yet, see RealClearPolitics Pollster Scorecard for 2016 and 2020 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/ and ActiVote’s Most Valuable Pollster ratings for 2024 https://www.activote.net/2024-most-valuable-pollster-mvp-rankings/.
Other pollsters who have also performed extremely well in those cycles, such as Emerson College and Rasmussen Reports have in the past few days shown President Trump’s job approval much closer to our numbers. An average of their results, combined with ours, would produce an a positive approval rating. Additionally, the high undecided percentage in this poll suggests that opinion is shifting, and given the movement in these polls we believe most of the undecideds will, subject to the unknown, break towards an “approve” response in the near future.
We believe it might be of value to keep a separate presidential job performance average made up of just the pollsters who have demonstrated their ability to poll Trump at lower error rates. As we have noted, many pollsters who are good at what they do have difficulty in their efforts to poll Trump. There remain “shy Trump voters/approvers” and reaching those individuals can be difficult.
We see many of the same patterns among various demographic groups that we saw in our final and very accurate surveys prior to the November election. 55% of men approve of Trump’s job performance while 37% of women approve. The youngest of voters approve of the president’s performance 48%-35%. That approval starts to decline slightly among those age 40-64. And, as we witnessed in our surveys during the election, 65 and over respondents were lowest in their approval.
And just as was the case in November, we find approval by African American voters in line with the results of our November surveys. And Hispanic/Latino voters are evenly split in their opinion. A majority of white voters approve of Trump’s performance.
