The much awaited InsiderAdvantage statewide survey of 800 LikelyVoters in the Georgia GOP Primary shows both the race for Governor of Georgia and U.S. Senate headed to runoffs. The survey was conducted May 16-17; Weighted for age, race, and gender; MOE 3.46%; Mixed mode text and panel.
The Results
Governor
Rick Jackson 31%
Burt Jones 27%
Brad Raffensperger 16%
Chris Carr 10%
Gregg Kirkpatrik 2%
Clark Dean 1%
LeLand Olinger II 1%
Kenneth Yasger: 0%
Undecided: 12%
U.S. Senate
Mike Collins 32%
Derek Dooley 26%
Buddy Carter 21%
Jonathan McColumn 2%
John Coyne: 1%
Undecided: 18%
Note: InsiderAdvantage has polled Georgia races longer than any public polling unit. The firm is recognized by RealClearPolitics as one of the most accurate multi-state pollsters in the nation.
Analysis by InsiderAdvantage Pollster Matt Towery:
“Before I touch on the results of the poll, let me address a bigger issue. In the years I lived in Georgia I served as political analyst at the Atlanta NBC affiliate, then the ABC affiliate, and finally the Fox affiliate. I’ve seen a lot of Georgia politics and I keep my ear close to the ground of red clay whenever I can.
Let me give kudos to Georgia Democratic leaders and their national forces and give the leaders at the national level of the GOP a big warning.
Donald Trump won Georgia in 2024 because Republicans participated in early voting in record numbers. However, Georgia Republicans have received a paltry amount in funds from national sources to push early voting in this cycle. Democrats have outvoted Republicans by over 150,000 votes. Georgia’s entire judicial system, if a seat is up for a vote, takes place in the primary with names of the candidates appearing on both the Democratic and Republican ballots. Although they are listed as “nonpartisan” contests, they are in many cases very partisan. This could put Republican oriented judges and Justices at severe risk. And no one can deny the importance of Georgia’s judicial branch post-2020.
Moreover, this is a repeat performance. A lack of national resources kept the Georgia GOP from implementing a turnout plan that likely would have allowed two Republican members of the Public Service Commission to survive the 2025 Special Statewide Election.
This is an ominous warning for Republicans running for Governor, Senate, you name it, in November. And this not a depressed early vote that can be blamed on Donald Trump. “Get Out the Vote” (GOTV) efforts are very technical and require substantial resources beyond a local party’s financial means. With two Democratic U.S. Senators Georgia is a state that Republicans cannot take for granted. And the failure by national GOP forces not to adequately fund GOTV in this primary season cannot be repeated elsewhere in November or the midterms truly could be catastrophic for their candidates.
Source for Early Voting stats https://georgiavotes.com/
Now for the polling results.
There is little doubt that Rick Jackson and Burt Jones will face off in a runoff. Carr and Raffensperger have split the non-Trump portion of the primary vote. Had only one of the two been in the race, the contest for a runoff position would have been much more competitive. Since our last survey, both Carr and Raffensperger have leveled off with both Jones and Jackson rising a bit.
The Senate contest has seen a significant shift. In our late April survey we noted that Derek Dooley appeared to be gaining momentum. In our new survey he has accelerated ahead of Buddy Carter into second place. Mike Collins has been the frontrunner in all of our surveys and continues to be so. As it looks now,. it will likely be Dooley and Collins in the runoff. I should note that their remains a high undecided in this race, which could impact the actual results. But generally if someone is undecided in a survey of a race this close to the election, it means they aren’t likely to vote.
Note: Top Line Tabs To Be Posted Separately
