A survey conducted Nov 2-3 of 800 likely voters in Georgia shows Donald Trump with a one point lead over Kamala Harris. The survey has a margin of error of 3.7%
The Results:
Trump 49%
Harris 48%
Other 1%
Undecided 2%
Analysis by InsiderAdvantage Pollster Matt Towery:
We had planned to adjust our final turnout model to reflect underperformance in early and absentee ballots by African American voters in Georgia. As of the “stated” end of early-voting in Georgia that specific demographic, critical to a Democrat win, had a turnout that was several points behind that of 2020. However, the decision by at least six of the state’s most Democratic-vote rich counties to remain open and allow votes to be returned until Election Day, caused us to maintain our African American percent of the vote at its highest potential levels in our weighting. This makes the race a one point contest. This totally unexpected and fairly controversial event makes Georgia a bit of a polling circus and a potential source of election chaos for the second presidential cycle in a row.
As of late Sunday afternoon, the surprise move by the counties had moved the black percentage of the early-vote up by just a small number. But an additional 5000 absentee votes appeared on the Georgia reporting site, which suggests the decision by these counties to remain open could impact the election in a significant manner.
Same-day African-American vote in Georgia is traditionally anemic. However, we have learned that if anything can happen, it will happen in Georgia. Trump appears to have lost the early vote in Georgia by about one percent. But that is way ahead of where he was in 2020. He will need a robust turnout by Republicans on Election Day, where, according to our survey, he enjoys a substantial lead. Had our weighting adjusted as we had expected, Trump’s lead would be undoubtedly larger.
InsiderAdvantage has polled Georgia more than any modern day polling organization. In the las presidential cycle InsiderAdvantage was ranked the top pollster of battleground states in the nation by RealClearPolitics.
