An InsiderAdvantage poll of 800 registered likely voters conducted September 11-12 shows Kamala Harris with a two point lead in Wisconsin. The survey has a margin of error of 3.46% and is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey was conducted by cell/text modes.
Results:
Harris: 49%
Trump: 47%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 3%
Here is brief analysis from InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery:
Donald Trump trails Kamala Harris by two points in Wisconsin. And unlike many other battleground states where the results for various demographics are fairly close, Trump’s problem in Wisconsin boils down to one demographic, older voters. Harris leads older voters by over twenty points (and this bleeds over to cause the gap among independent voters to appear significant as well). The race remains well within the survey’s margin of error, so it is tight. But the Wisconsin results underscore a general theme which has emerged in our analysis of the swing states this cycle. Most races are very complex and messaging requires multiple themes aimed at numerous demographics. But the 2024 cycle is the most simplistic I have seen since I started polling presidential races several decades ago. We have seen substantial swings, back and forth, in the oldest age group and the youngest group throughout the Biden-Trump/Harris Trump contests. Trump’s pledge to end the taxation of social security and other issues related to taxation of wealth have not reached Wisconsin. If his messages to older voters fail to be turned into ads that penetrate to this most reliable (and usually earliest) of voters, he will likely lose Wisconsin and perhaps other battlegrounds. Trump has recovered among younger voters, who also went heavily Harris in our polls, following her becoming the likely nominee. We have seen senior voters bounce from one camp to another as the contests have evolved, but at the moment, and particularly in Wisconsin, they are in the Harris column. The undecided percentage is a little higher than in some other swing states, so this race could change in the coming weeks.
