An InsiderAdvantage survey of 800 registered likely voters shows Donald Trump with a one point lead over Kamala Harris in Michigan. The survey was conducted September 11th through midday September 12th. The data collection was by cell/text and is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The poll has a margin of error of 3.7%
Results:
Trump: 49%
Harris: 48%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 2%
Note: InsiderAdvantage, rated the most accurate multi-state pollster for the 2020 presidential election by RealClearPolitics, was also the most accurate pollster in the final RCP average of the 2020 Michigan presidential race. American Research Group ranked InsiderAdvantage as the most accurate pollster in Michigan’s presidential 2020 contest: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/michigan/trump-vs-biden https://americanresearchgroup.com/ratings/2020/MIPres.html
Here is brief analysis of this Michigan survey by InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery:
As is the case in most battleground states, the race is extremely close. While there remains some enthusiasm gap in many of these states, with an advantage to Democrats, Michigan has no gap whatsoever. The candidates are basically tied in every age demographic, with Trump slightly ahead among independents. This poll was conducted after the Trump-Harris debate, but utilizing the same modes of data collection utilized in our 2020 surveys. InsiderAdvantage does not utilize IVR technology.
Trump enjoyed a five point advantage among independent voters. The poll also showed a slightly higher amount of support for Trump among African-Americans (around twenty-percent), which may be an aberration, or a reflection of higher African-American numbers seen in recent national surveys such as The New York Times survey. Regardless, Michigan’s African-American vote, while not insignificant, is half that of swing states such as Georgia, so the elevated numbers, if reduced to past historical levels, would not change the basic tie within the margins. I suspect that for various reasons unique to Michigan in this cycle, the African-American numbers are fairly accurate, at least for this stage in the contest.
It appears that the debate had little or no impact on the contest, particularly among independent voters, in this particular state. A poll of battleground states we conducted with Trafalgar Group the night of the debate showed that while respondent’s thought Harris won the debate 55%-43%, undecideds did not move and overall support for the candidates was tied 48%-48%. The race remains extremely competitive both in Michigan and likely all of the battleground states.
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