InsiderAdvantage Survey 600 LV; Mixed Mode Text/Panel; Conducted 9/20-21; MOE 4.0%; Weighted for Age, Race, Gender, and Political Affiliation
The results:
Q. If the election for U.S. Senate in Florida were held today, for whom would you vote?
Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%
Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%
Other 2%
Undecided: 7%
Top To Be Line Tabs Posted Separately
Note: InsiderAdvantage, over its past 25 years, has polled Florida extensively– ranging from trade associations, to newspapers, and network TV affiliates. Our record, as noted by RealClearPolitics, has been extremely strong in the Sunshine State.
InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery: “In this, my final year polling publicly in Florida, I have seen just about anything possible. Florida is a fun state to poll, and to be honest, not overly difficult. However, the state can shift quickly, when a real shift takes place. So is this one go those years?
At present it looks unlikely, certainly as to the the Senate contest. Moody leads among males 53-36 and is basically tied among female voters. All but the youngest of age groups support Moody and even younger voters are close (45-40). Republicans have suffered an erosion of their support from Hispanic-Latinos, but Moody has held on to a stronger share than many of her fellow Republican incumbents running this year.
It would be fair to say that should Moody lose, it is likely that it will mean that the Republicans collapsed nationally and in Florida. That is a current media theme, but is not as likely as portrayed.
At present certainly it is not likely in this race for U.S. Senate.
