InsiderAdvantage/Fox 5’s final poll of the U.S. Senate runoff between Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker was conducted December 4th among 750 likely voters. It has a margin of error of 3.6%. Crosstabs can be found HERE.
Raphael Warnock, Democrat: 51%
Herschel Walker, Republican: 48%
No Opinion/Undecided: 1%
InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery:
“Walker trails Warnock by three points in our survey, which is within the margin of error. Warnock leads among early votes cast by over sixty percent. That means that turnout on Tuesday will have to be unusually high for Walker to win. Warnock and groups supporting him have continued their numerous personal attacks on Walker, which eroded Walker’s support among female voters. The Walker campaign has countered with similar ads concerning Warnock, but they have had limited resources and less support from outside organizations.
“It is also becoming obvious that Democrats are better at focusing on ballot collection in Georgia runoffs. They have piled up a formidable lead in early voting which forces Republicans to play catch up on Election Day. If turnout is only moderate tomorrow, then the margin by which Warnock might win could stretch by an even larger number. A last-minute slew of ads featuring Governor Brian Kemp on Walker’s behalf appear effective but perhaps too late. If Republicans do an exceptional job at getting their voters to the polls Walker could pull off an upset as he leads Warnock among those who plan to vote on Tuesday by nearly thirty points.
“Should Walker lose this runoff Republicans will have to change their approach to highly competitive races and in the future focus their efforts on gathering ballots early, using the exact same system that Democrats have nearly perfected. The other statewide General Election races this year were not particularly competitive, and this allowed for the traditional GOP approach to prevail. That approach will become increasingly unsuccessful for Republicans in future Georgia statewide contests.”