Sample: 550 Likely Voters
Conducted Tuesday, October 4th
Margin of error: 4.2%
- Stacey Abrams, Democrat: 45%
- Brian Kemp, Republican Incumbent: 50%
- Shane Hazel, Libertarian: 2%
- No Opinion/Undecided: 3%
- Herschel Walker, Republican: 44%
- Raphael Warnock, Democrat Incumbent: 47%
- Chase Oliver, Libertarian: 3%
- Other: 1%
- No Opinion/Undecided: 5%
Analysis from Matt Towery, founder of InsiderAdvantage:
The race for Governor: “The race for Governor of Georgia has tightened just slightly, but not beyond the margin of error. Brian Kemp would likely win the contest without a runoff if the election were held today. The undecided percent is extremely low in this contest.”
The race for U.S. Senate: “We were polling this race before news broke late Monday of allegations against Herschel Walker and the social media posts by his son. We scrapped that poll and surveyed last evening after newspapers, television news, and social media bombarded voters with the various stories. In our Monday, October 3 poll, and prior to these news events, Walker trailed Warnock by one point.
“The good news for Warnock is that following these newest events, he leads by three points. The good news for Walker is that the difference between the two polls is well within the survey’s margin of error.
“I continue to believe that the polling suggests that this race is headed to a General Election runoff. Warnock was at 47% in our September survey of this contest and despite the latest controversy around Walker, remains at the same percentage. Walker has dropped since our September survey, which is not surprising. However, the votes shift around but do not seem to push the incumbent near the plus one vote number needed to win.
“Walker continues to take endless hits to his personal reputation in paid media and press reports, but Warnock has gone relatively unscathed by the Walker campaign and media regarding his personal reputation. If Warnock escapes a runoff, that will likely be the one determining factor in the contest.”
NOTE: Full story on FOX 5 Atlanta on the Wednesday, October 5th noon news