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A FOX 5/InsiderAdvantage survey conducted July 26-27 of 750 likely voters in the November elections shows incumbents Brian Kemp and Raphael Warnock leading their respective challengers. Republican Burt Jones has a more substantial lead against his Democratic opponent in the race for Lieutenant Governor. The survey has a margin of error of 3.6% (view crosstabs)
Stacey Abrams, Democrat: 44%
Brian Kemp, Republican Incumbent: 49%
Shane Hazel, Libertarian: 3%
Herschel Walker, Republican: 45%
Raphael Warnock, Democrat Incumbent: 48%
Chase Oliver, Libertarian: 3%
Charlie Bailey, Democrat: 37%
Burt Jones, Republican: 43%
Ryan Graham, Libertarian: 4%
InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery:
“Brian Kemp has emerged strong post-primary with over ninety-five percent of Republicans saying they support his reelection. Stacey Abrams is just outside the poll’s margin of error, which means the race remains competitive. The big question in both the gubernatorial contest and the race for U.S. Senate is whether the incumbents can win with fifty percent, plus one vote, to avoid Georgia’s runoff system? Were the race held today, Kemp would win without a runoff, but the race is obviously fluid and close.”
“Herschel Walker is in a tighter race against incumbent Raphael Warnock. But Walker is facing serious problems with female voters, where he trails Warnock by nine points. If the race were held today the contest could potentially go to a runoff, a déjà vu of the 2020 Senate contests.”
“Republicans have their clearest lead in the race for Lieutenant Governor. Republican Burt Jones leads Democrat Charlie Bailey by six points. The race will end up closer due to the inherent increased strength of Democratic candidates in Georgia. But at present Jones would likely avoid any runoff by a safe margin (the position always polls a larger undecided vote which usually breaks proportionate to the decided percentages).
The operative word in Georgia for all statewide races is now ‘runoff.’ With the various shifts in demographics, Georgia statewide elections will increasingly become a battle of escaping runoffs in General Election contests. As we have learned, runoffs can easily turn frontrunners in November into losers a few months later in Georgia.”