An InsiderAdvantage/FOX5 Atlanta survey of 800 registered likely voters in Georgia shows very tight races in the two U.S. Senate runoffs. The survey was conducted November 16 by both IVR and live cell phone calls. It is weighted for age, race, and gender. The margin of error is 3.5%. Crosstabs can be found HERE
Kelly Loeffler: 48%
Raphael Warnock: 49%
David Perdue: 49%
Jon Ossoff: 49%
The same survey shows that Governor Brian Kemp’s job approval has dropped significantly:
Voters were split as to whether they felt the results of the November 3rd election were “fair and accurate.”
Election Results Fair And Accurate
Fair and accurate: 53%
Not fair and accurate: 40%
Among Republican voters, 73% said that the election was not fair and accurate.
Asked if signatures when voting in public or absentee should be checked against official state records and match, a large percent of Georgians agreed.
Signatures Should Match licenses or official registration
Signatures should match: 70%
Signatures should not match: 19%
InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery:
“This poll shows just how competitive Georgia has become. The challenge for the two Republicans will be how to hold on to the over ten percent level of support they have from African American voters, while at the same time trying to convert suburban Atlanta white voters who have drifted away from the GOP. The current ad campaign by Sen. Loeffler against Rev. Warnock may have opened a can of worms that could lead to an erosion of that fragile level of support. The two Republican campaigns have decided to run in tandem and as a result, any mistake by one campaign may impact both. Warnock will be the centerpiece of attempting to drive African American vote higher than it was in the General Election, which is essential for a win for both Ossoff and him.”
Also of note, the current war between Trump supporters and Governor Brian Kemp over Kemp’s lack of vocal response to perceived election issues is not only impacting Kemp’s approval ratings, but the Republican voter intensity and interest in the Senate runoff as of now. Donald Trump is uniquely popular with a vast majority of Georgia Republicans and it will require Trump to fire up the GOP voters. At this time I would say that the Republican candidates might both be slight underdogs as of now. That will come as a shock to people who have not followed the shift in demographics and voting patterns in Georgia. Either race can be won by either party’s nominee.
Former pollster for the Reagan White House Craig Keshishian, who has joined the InsiderAdvantage team: “Times have changed in Georgia where runoffs for Republicans were considered a lock for them. That is clearly no longer the case.”