Donald Trump is closing the gap with Joe Biden in Pennsylvania as election day nears according to a new survey by InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery for the Center for American Greatness.
The phone survey of 400 likely voters conducted October 12-13 showed Biden with a 3-point lead (MoE =+/- 4.9) over Trump. The recent Real Clear Politics poll average has shown Biden with a 7 point lead but that’s been shrinking. The next most recent poll of Pennsylvania showed Biden with just a 2-point lead.
Towery says that ”This race is certainly close given that the spread is within the margin of error. However it is obvious that the Trump campaign has a problem with voters 65 and older. This is true in several battleground states, but more obvious in Pennsylvania. This is problematic given the fact that these older voters have increasingly become the base of the Republican Party. What is keeping the race so close are voters who are “middle aged.” Trump enjoys a huge lead among those voters and is doing better with younger voters than some polls might suggest.”
“It is clear that voters are split over the state’s rigid series of shutdowns related to COVID-19. Almost fifty-percent of voters agree with the recent WHO declaration that shutdowns are not the best alternative for future COVID spikes. And among those under 65, opposition to lockdowns is substantial. This suggests that a plan to protect seniors and to allow younger voters the ability to avoid future shutdowns of businesses and schools could be a winning combination for one of the candidates in the state.”
“Of note, Trump’s unusually high performance among African American voters in other hotly contested states seems to be holding in Pennsylvania as well. In this survey Trump hold’s fifteen percent of the black vote, which is consistent with what we are seeing in these other states.”
“The Trump campaign seems to suffer when its ad buys are light and rebounds in the polls quickly when advertising dollars flow more freely. This was the case in Florida when, in past weeks, Joe Biden was substantially outspending Trump in TV ads. But more recently, as the president’s campaign increased its presence with more digital and television ads to more varied audiences, polls there have tightened. This suggests that any last burst of Trump ads in Pennsylvania could also lead to a much tighter race and a possible shift towards President Trump. But time is running out.”