The latest survey and first “Super Poll” of the General Election by InsiderAdvantage/Opinion Savvy shows the races in Georgia tightening and potentially headed to runoffs. The combined telephone mobile devices and online survey of 947 likely voters weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation has a margin of error of 3.2% and a 95% confidence level. It was conducted September 29-Oct 1. Crosstabs are at the bottom of the post.
Nathan Deal: 44% (43.7)
Jason Carter: 43% (43.4)
Andrew Hunt: 4%
David Perdue: 47%
Michelle Nunn: 43%
Amanda Swafford: 3%
Analysis by InsiderAdvantage CEO/Fox5 Political Analyst Matt Towery:
“This race seems stuck in the mud and still appears headed for a runoff,” said Towery. “In reality this is a 44%-44% race, but rounding off led to the slight difference. It should be noted that our poll weights African-American turnout at a higher rate than most other surveys. If that turnout is lower, Deal will take a bigger lead.
“Currently 28% of African-American voters say they are either voting for Deal or are undecided. That is nothing new this far out from an election for our surveys, which do not “push” respondents or ask them how they might lean. But historically all but a fraction of the black vote moves to the Democrat, which would likely result in the same close race even if African-American turnout lags.
“The big news for Carter is that he now has 32% of the white vote in our survey. That reaches the magic number that Democrats have failed to receive in recent statewide races.
“Deal’s new ads featuring First Lady Sandra Deal could improve his numbers among female voters and his ad campaign is now appearing to be in high gear. But if Carter starts running tougher ads and turns the race into a referendum on Deal, the polling suggests this would go to a runoff in December,” said Towery.
“Nunn has gained ground in recent weeks,” said Towery. “A key to this was the Perdue ad made by his campaign, using a leaked Nunn campaign memo. Perdue’s ad suggested that the non-profit Nunn ran aided terrorists. The ad appears to have blown up on the Perdue campaign. Nunn’s forceful ad answering the charges appears to be moving female voters.
“Of more concern to Perdue should be Nunn’s relatively strong position with male voters. And like Carter, her percent of white respondents favoring her is rising. Perdue could still win this race without a runoff, but as of today that appears less likely,” Towery said.
*raw totals vary slightly as to number of respondents to individual question